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Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Manufactured Economies?

This exemplifies the “soft patch” that the global economy seems to be going through, though we must wonder if this situation is temporary or a sign of things to come.

PMI data from China, the Euro zone, the UK, and later this morning the all show that growth is slowing. Yet inflationary pressure due to a weak US dollar still has commodities prices near highs. With massive debt owed around the globe, it appears as though we are getting ready for global stagflation.

In Australia, GDP figures came in slightly lower than expected as a result of the flooding and this was a relief to the markets as the fear was that it was going to be much worse.

Today starts the first of three employment reports here in the US, with the ADP employment change figures today, initial jobless claims tomorrow, and lastly Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
So there is some risk aversion in the markets to start the day, led by lower stocks and commodities prices.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher despite the risk aversion as GDP figures came in showing a quarterly decline of 1.2%, just missing the expectation of 1.1%. This was seen as a positive by the market, which feared that it could be worse than expected. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is mixed this morning as lower Chinese PMI figures highlight a slowing Chinese economy, and this affects the Kiwi as the Chinese import a lot from NZ.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is somewhat mixed today after yesterday’s BOC rate policy decision reported that they will “eventually” raise interest rates. This sent the Loonie higher yesterday and now the question is “when” and not “if”. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed today as slightly lower than expected PMI figures and the focus on the Greek debt crisis leave the market befuddled.

Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower across the board after the biggest miss in PMI data, reporting a figure of 52.1 vs. an expected 54.1. In addition, mortgage approvals were lower to 45.2K vs. an expected 47K showing signs of economic weakness.

Swissie (CHF): The Franc is higher across the board receiving the dual benefit of risk aversion and better than expected retail sales figures.

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower as the ADP jobs report came in much worse than expected this morning posting a gain of 38K vs. an expected 175K. This will likely reduce the expectation of Friday’s NFP and despite the risk aversion in the markets, money flows are moving elsewhere.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly higher on risk themes as the Japanese Prime Minister Kan faces a no-confidence vote over his handling of the crisis taking place in Japan. Political uncertainty is not good as Kan was seen as moving toward fiscal responsibility.

Wow, just a dismal employment change number here in the US has the markets spooked about what Friday’s NFP might be. With many areas of the economy weakening, the possibility of QE3 may be back on the table.
With the theater taking place in Washington DC over raising the debt ceiling, the inability of politicians to get us back on the path to financial responsibility will cause this situation to stagnate further.

Should Bernanke continue with the misguided belief that further Fed easing be required, then we will most certainly be on our way to stagflation. Let’s face it, there is a time to spend and a time to save and with economic uncertainty where it is, saving is the right way to go regardless of whether or not the Fed makes it an unappealing proposition.

There is still great risk in the marketplace, whether it’s from a global slowdown or the Euro debt crisis. Do not be fooled into making irresponsible decisions just because that is what the government wants you to do!

Put your money with the financially responsible regions around the globe as they are the ones mostly likely to experience growth. A very simple way to do this is through the forex market!

Turning A Negative Into A Positive!

While silver linings may exist in Japan, this is clearly not the case in the US, as yesterday the GDP revision, personal consumption, and initial jobless claims figures all missed their mark. So we are seeing Dollar weakness in the marketplace, but don’t mistake this for risk appetite. Right now the fundamentals are starting to come back more into focus, as risk themes become more muddled.

One such beneficiary of risk themes has been the Suisse franc, which is now looking like the best safe-haven currency out there. It is hitting all-time highs vs. the Euro, the Dollar, and the Pound and the IMF just called for Switzerland to raise interest rates—which will make it more desirable if the Suisse do comply.
Later this morning, the US will report personal income and spending numbers, though it seems doubtful that these will impress the markets. Stocks are flat to slightly higher, with commodities stronger as next week is shortened due to the Memorial Day holiday here in the US. This means that banks are closed on Monday, which will reduce volume but not volatility.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher as yield-seeking is taking place on Dollar weakness. While there is still considerable risk in the market, the markets are becoming less enamored with the US dollar as a safe haven.

Kiwi (NZD): Another up day for the Kiwi on rumors that China has been buying in order to diversify it’s considerable currency reserves. It is at a 3-year high. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is losing its luster as it is being sold because of Canada’s close ties to the US. As economic conditions decline here in the US, Canada will decline as well as the US is by far the largest importer of Canadian goods and services.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is mostly higher as the “anti-Dollar” is benefiting from US economic malaise despite the problems in the Euro zone with the periphery countries debt problems. Euro zone economic confidence figures came in lower than expected.

Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed as market concern over weak economic recovery in the UK is near the forefront. However, home prices rose for the month more slightly more than expected showing that there is still price stability and inflationary pressures in the economy.

Swissy (CHF): The Swissy is making new all-time highs vs. EUR, GBP, and USD after the IMF called for a rate hike in Switzerland. The Swissy has been receiving a major bid from its safe-haven status as a better performing economy than both the US and Japan. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Dollar (USD): The Dollar is weaker across the board after the second day of weak economic data. Personal income figures came in as expected at .4%, but personal spending was slightly lower than expected at .4% vs. the expectation of .5%. Monday is a bank holiday in the US.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is mixed after Japanese CPI data ended 25 months of deflation after posting a .6% gain. Retail sales however fell 4.8%, though that was better than expected. The Fitch downgrade of Japan’s credit is a largely non-issue, and perhaps this will set the stage for some economic growth in Japan going forward.

The major theme of the last two days in US dollar weakness as negative economic data paints a picture of an economy in trouble. It is amazing that this makes the Dollar less desirable than the Euro, which is mired in its own problems with the debt problems of its periphery members.

Nevertheless, because Monday is a bank holiday here in the US, we could see some squaring of books this weekend though I don’t think the usual risk-off play of buying Dollars will happen.

Currencies like the Swissy and gold by proxy are taking away some of the Dollar’s attributes as the major safe-haven currency, which could be a problem if the US economy continues to sink.

With the problems that ail the US economy and no apparent solutions coming from US policy-makers, it could be a long summer for USD!

Enjoy the long weekend folks, I’ll be back on Tuesday!

Summer Soft Patch?

The problem with all of these emergency and stop-gap measures is that everyone knows they are fleeting, so this does not change consumer sentiment or behavior. Temporary solutions provide temporary relief, and the complete lack of confidence in politicians to solve our problems is alarming.

But it’s not just here in the US where these issue occur, though we are the worst of the bunch. The ECB had to take the other tack, pressing the individual countries to solve the debt crisis and stating that the ECB would not be expanding its aid to Greece.

In the UK, the data has also gotten worse, with industrial and manufacturing production figures coming in way worse than expected, which may actually vindicate the BOE’s easy money policy. But therein lies the problem—people have caught on to the fact the economies are not healthy because monetary policy is so cheap so they act defensively which causes economic stagnation.

Would the reverse actually occur if Central banks stated raising rates? If you want to fool the people into believe things are well, shouldn’t they be doing the opposite of what they have been doing?

Things aren’t horrible everywhere, though, as China increased its imports by 28.4% showing signs that they may be pushing an agenda led by domestic demand. This will ultimately be a positive for New Zealand and Australia, and possible Japan when they get back on track.

In Canada, the unemployment rate shrank to 7.4% as more jobs were added to the economy, though the participation rate came in slightly lower. So all of this adds up to risk aversion in the markets, with declines in both stocks and commodities.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower across the board on risk aversion as well as the fact that recent weaker economic data has shifted the focus more toward the Kiwi and Loonie.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is actually mostly higher despite the risk aversion as the increase in Chinese imports helps New Zealand’s economy. A fresh all-time high was made earlier vs. USD.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mixed today as lower oil prices and a sputtering US economy put pressure on the currency, yet better than expected employment figures show that the economy is moving forward. Canada added 22.3K jobs vs. an expected 20K jobs gain, and the unemployment rate shrank to 7.4% from an expected and previous 7.6%. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Euro (EUR): The ECB has re-assumed the role of parent and not enabler with regard to the member countries and the debt crisis. The message is loud and clear that the inaction over the past year to find a resolution will no longer be tolerated. German CPI data came in as expected and growth projections for the economy were also expanded.

Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower across the board after industrial production figures showed a decline of 1.7% vs. an expected no-change, and manufacturing production figures showed a decline of 1.5% vs. an expected decline of .1%. This is indicative of the weakening economic conditions in the UK. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Swissie (CHF): The Swissie is mixed as it’s safe haven properties are causing demand, but less so than the Dollar and Yen as the economic problems in the Euro zone could have a carry-over effect.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is showing some strength on risk aversion heading into the weekend on the usual “take risk off ahead of the weekend” play. No news out of the US is good news.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is stronger across the board on risk aversion as carry trades are abandoned, at least for the weekend carry. Rumblings of some type of monetary intervention keep making the rounds, and perhaps the market is willing to probe these suspicions by buying Yen.

So is it just a soft patch, or something worse? I have not seen any evidence that would lead me to believe it is the former, as long-term outlooks are still being held back by misguided government policy. So far nothing has changed.

QE2 was intended to buy the government time to make strides toward getting its fiscal house in order, but seemingly they have done nothing. Now that summer season is upon us, these guys in Washington can’t wait to get out of Dodge and retire to whatever golf course they can to avoid the scrutiny of the general public who elected them and are struggling to make ends meet.

Pretty soon election season will be upon us so that means its time to hit the campaign trail which will further delay any type of action. Meanwhile, the economy stagnates and the malaise and lack of confidence grow.
Not quite the recipe for growth, now is it? The beauty of the forex market is that you don’t have to stand idly by and take it! You can invest your hard earned money in the currencies of countries that are committed to solutions and not just kicking the can down the road.

Isn’t time you came to see what the forex market is all about?

Quick Turnaround!

Yesterday’s emergency meeting of leader failed to produce anything and the major outcome that was reported was “bickering”. EU leaders need to come up with a solution by the end of the month in order for Greece to secure an IMF payment which could be withheld if no action is taken. Germany is still insisting on measures that would constitute a default, and no resolution appears close.

It is patently clear that Germany is the obstacle in this process and while bailouts aren’t my cup of tea, if they want to save the Euro then they need to compromise. Germany stands the most to lose in this entire ordeal, so in my opinion they are negotiating from a position of weakness and not strength. Stay tuned for this one!
In the UK jobless claims came in three times higher than expected and wage growth has slowed though the unemployment rate has remained steady at 7.7%.

US CPI data is due out later this morning and is expected to vindicate Bernanke as fuel costs have come down. Yesterday’s regalia of Bernanke and the Fed may have stolen the headlines from the re-opening of “Spiderman” on Broadway as the best staged event of the day!

So the markets have started the day in risk aversion mode, with stocks and commodities lower around the globe. Lost in yesterday’s excitement over tame Chinese CPI is the fact that raised bank reserve requirements in an attempt to slow their economy.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher to start the morning despite the risk aversion in the marketplace. Yield-seekers see a positive economy and the RBA honcho’s conflicting comments that inflation was more likely than not could foreshadow a possible rate hike. New dwelling starts rose 3.1% vs. an expectation of a decline of .8%.
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Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower across the board despite a much better reading of consumer confidence from last month. Considering that they were dealing with an earthquake last month, this was to be expected. Risk aversion and money flows are putting pressure on the Kiwi.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mixed despite lower oil prices to start the morning. The fate of the Loonie lies somewhat with the US CPI data and what the market response to the release may be.

Euro (EUR): The Euro has given back all of yesterday’s gains and then some. While Euro zone industrial production figures came in better than expected, the problems with the Greek debt crisis are weighing heavily on risk in the markets. 
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Pound (GBP): The Pound is mostly lower after jobless claims came in showing an increase of 19.6K vs. an expectation of 6.5K. While the UK economy is definitely slowing, how the avoid stagflation is anyone’s guess.

Swissie (CHF): The Swissie is mixed as its safe-haven properties are counter-balanced by the sentiment that the SNB will not raise interest rates due to recent franc strength. Declining import prices reflect Swissie strength.

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is higher across the board as risk aversion ahead of this morning’s CPI data release and specific Euro weakness are driving demand. Should inflation come in less than expected, pressure for higher rates would abate.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is surprisingly mixed this morning as well, as risk aversion has increased demand, yet not enough to unwind carry trades. With the risk coming from Europe, it appears as though money flows are driving price action. The Nikkei was actually higher last night, the only major market index to post gains.
As you can tell by now, sentiment in the marketplace can shift on a dime and there is still major risk around the globe. Some days the positives are emphasized (like yesterday), while others the negatives shine through.
The problems in Europe are too great and the Greek situation may be a microcosm of what is really taking place. Germany is playing with fire in this situation and ultimately they might end of getting burned before they drag everyone else into the fire.

While the rest of the globe has a “wait and see” attitude at this point, European leaders essentially have 2 weeks to get this figured out. So while the only fireworks expected this summer should occur on July 4th, there may be other “independence” celebrations taking place.

Of course this bound to bring about a lot of pain as well, and certain market volatility. So don’t take time away this summer, as the action may be too great to miss!


Here We Go Again!

Last night another earthquake rocked New Zealand in the city of Christ Church—again! The more serious of the quakes was of a 6.0 magnitude and the extent of the damage is still unknown. This is sure to slow the rebuilding efforts from the last earthquake, and likely to delay any potential rate hikes for some time.
Also weighing on markets is the Greek debt crisis, and though officials claim to be able to come up with a resolution by month-end, at this stage of the game this doesn’t seem likely.

Tomorrow China will report its CPI data and there is fear in the markets that higher than expected inflation there could cause the PBOC to raise interest rates as they attempt to slow down growth. This would be very unwelcome in a marketplace that is already seeing weakness and is on high risk alert due to the problems in the Euro zone.

CPI data due out this week from different regions around the globe will show how hot inflation is, and it appears as though global stagflation may be on the way. Stocks are higher to start the morning, though oil prices have pulled back. There are some elements of risk-taking in the market with the exception of Kiwi weakness, though that may change throughout the day.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-appetite this morning despite the setback in New Zealand. Business and consumer confidence figures are due out this week, though expect volatility tomorrow on the release of the Chinese data on what is otherwise a slow week for news out of Australia.

Kiwi (NZD): Well I guess you have to have faith in a city named Christ Church after another round of earthquakes rocked New Zealand’s second largest city. This will have an obvious impact on the rebuilding efforts from the last earthquake, and could delay rate hikes going forward. 
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Loonie (CAD): There’s not a lot of news due out this week for the Loonie so expect it to trade closely tethered to oil prices and to be affected by US economic data. Risk events such as the Euro debt situation and Chinese CPI could drive3 price action as well.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is rebounding some from last week’s selling as the Greek debt crisis is the major news driving the shared currency. Industrial production figures due out mid-week and CPI data on Thursday could give ECB hawks some ammunition, though the market is starting to believe that raising interest rates while the debt crisis is still uncertain may be irresponsible. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Pound (GBP): The Pound is in focus this week as a slew data is due out this week, starting with CPI tomorrow, employment on Wednesday, and retail sales on Thursday. Lat week’s data came in worse than expected, though some are blaming the Royal Wedding for the slowdown, which may be plausible but not likely.

Swissie (CHF): The Swissie is showing some strength today despite the risk appetite in the market ahead of an economic report due out tomorrow and the SNB rate policy decision on Thursday. While no change is expected to the interest rate, Switzerland has been performing exceptionally well in the face of the global economic slowdown.
Dollar (USD): Last week was the biggest one-week gain for the Dollar in some time, led mostly by Euro weakness and risk aversion. There is a lot of data due out his week, with Advance retail sales, CPI data, housing starts, and consumer confidence all on the docket. Taken together this will show the current state of the US economy as we move into the summer months.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is noticeably weaker as the market is anticipating some type of monetary easing in the not-so-distant future. A 2-day BOJ meeting may produce this result, as economic weakness still persists and recession has “officially” taken place. Machine orders figures were negative overnight.
So it looks like round two of the economic slowdown is about to begin and we may be in for another perfect storm of Euro debt, Chinese slowdown, and higher commodities prices. Though this time it may add up to stagflation.

Japan is still recovering so its economy is not yet back on track, and everyone else seems to be slowing down. Easy monetary policy by Central bankers is intended to buy time to fix problems but it is apparent that the time given has not been used wisely.

So here we are again. Leaders in the Euro zone have not been able to come up with a solution for these debt-laden countries and interest rates have doubled since the beginning of the crisis making it nearly impossible to resolve now. Yet they say that they hope to have a solution in the next two weeks despite the lack of agreement thus far. Good luck with that!

The US is doing nothing about its budget deficit problems, as well as the housing market that is hanging over the economy. Housing starts figures this week are bound to paint a bleak picture.
There is still great risk in the marketplace, though how long “extend and pretend” can continue is anyone’s guess.

It’s Ugly Out There!

This morning, the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released at 8:30AM EST which will show the state of the employment situation here in the US. As a result of Wednesday’s dismal ADP employment change figures, analysts have revised their initial projections lower so it is highly uncertain how the market will react to the release.
What we do know however is this: that the US and the global economy is slowing and that there are still major risks to stability. The debt crisis in the Euro zone, the unstable situation in the Arab countries, and Japan still dealing with the nuclear crisis as a result of the natural disaster all have the potential to add fuel to the fire.

In the Euro zone, they are preparing for the reaction to the news that a second bailout for Greece is near completion with potential ramifications from both an economic and political standpoint.

Kindle, Wi-Fi, Graphite, 6" Display with New E Ink Pearl TechnologyPMI service data for the Euro zone came in slightly better than expected, and Merkel’s comments yesterday that the economy in the EU is healthy but for a few countries with excessive debt may be spot on.

But the big news this morning is the NFP, where forecasts have been revised to as low as an addition of 100K jobs, with the new median being somewhere around 165K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 8.9%.

Both stocks and commodities are lower to start the day, and it is so hard to say what will happen on a day like today as expectations are all over the board, so volatility could be extreme of non-existent.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly lower ahead of the NFP as risk aversion going into the weekend is a safe bet. The Performance of Service Index came in lower than last month’s reading, posting a figure of 49.9 vs. last month’s 51.5.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower across the board as building permits figures missed expectations, showing a decline of 1.6% vs. an expectation of a gain of .5%. This in addition to making recent highs and today’s risk aversion make the Kiwi a likely candidate for profit-taking.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mostly lower as oil prices have retreated to under $100 ahead of this morning’s NFP report. The Loonie will be extremely sensitive to this release as what’s good (or bad) for the US affects Canada greatly.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed but somewhat flat against USD as the market is unsure whether the anti-Dollar properties of the Euro make it a decent alternative to the Dollar despite the risk in the market. Euro zone PMI Composite and Services figures came in better than expected lead by Germany, and the news that another Greek bailout is forthcoming may allay market fears. 
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Pound (GBP): The Pound is lower across the board as PMI services figures came in lower than expected posting a reading of 53.8 vs. an expected 54.2. While not a huge miss, rate hike expectations for the UK are at their lowest levels in nearly 6 months despite the inflation in the UK economy. (Click chart to enlarge)
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Swissie (CHF): The Swissie has been on tear of late as the preferred safe-haven currency of choice, making new all-time highs vs. a range of currencies including USD. This makes it a likely candidate for reversal should risk abate in the market, and that could start with NFP today and the Greek bailout around the corner.

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is gaining some strength from risk aversion this morning ahead of NFP, but it has been losing its luster as a safe-haven as the economic data has been weak of late prompting the market to believe that QE3 may be an option.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is stronger across the board on risk aversion despite the notion that Prime Minister Kan’s plan could result in a lame-duck government which may delay the recovery.
Wow! Simply wow! The Non-Farm Payrolls report just came in a showed a dismal gain of 54K with the unemployment rate coming in at 9.1%. This is an absolutely horrible number and a sign that US economy is still very weak.

With uncertainty running rampant and the government doing absolutely nothing to fix our problems, this is a huge no-confidence vote by business who will not hire and add to their cost structure in the face of rising deficits, increased regulation, higher taxes, and unknown health care costs. Bad government policy and the focus on the wrong things is what has gotten us to this point, and it may be time for a nuclear enema in Washington DC.

The markets are obviously selling-off as a result, with the Dollar unbelievably strengthening despite the fact that QE3 may be a real possibility. So it looks like the only “pay day” is for the stooges in Washington, who take home a large check for doing relatively little.

Remember, you can take action against bad policy here in the US—invest abroad. One of the best ways to do this is through the forex market, where not only can you get off this sinking ship of the US dollar, but get paid interest to do so!

Bubble Ben Bungles!

In the Euro zone, German Industrial production figures came in lower than expected, and another ratings agency stated that indeed a rollover of Greek bonds would constitute a default. Let’s not forget that a default will trigger a massive event, led by credit default swaps (CDS) which were termed “financial weapons of mass destruction” and greatly contributed to the economic collapse of 2008. GDP figures came in as expected.

The Fed’s Beige Book report is due out later today but will tell us what we already know, that the economy is weakening. The powers that be are attempting to pass this off as a “soft patch” so that their summer vacations can go interrupted.

Later today we will get New Zealand’s interest rate decision, which is expected to produce no change. Tonight will bring Japan’s GDP figures, and as the Yen strengthens the talk of Bank of Japan monetary intervention increases.

Tomorrow is the rate decision in both the Euro zone and the UK.

So the markets are trading lower this morning on risk-aversion, as the outlook continues to worsen.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is trading lower on risk aversion ahead of tomorrow’s employment report, holding support currently just above 1.06 vs. USD.

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Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower on risk aversion as well and this afternoon’s RBNZ rate decision is unlikely to produce a change in policy or a hawkish statement. A weaker Kiwi will be desirable in the event of a global slowdown.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mostly lower on lower oil prices and risk aversion despite the fact that housing starts came in better than expected, posting gains 183.6K vs. an expected 182K. While these are not world-beating numbers, anything positive is welcome at this point.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is mixed to lower as GDP figures came in expected showing moderate growth of 2.5%, though German industrial production figures came in lower than expected. The potential resolutions to the Greek debt crisis are being met with scrutiny, and not all members of the Euro zone are on the same page. 

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Pound (GBP): The Pound is mostly lower ahead of tomorrow’s rate policy decision as Moody’s suggested that the UK’s current credit rating may be in jeopardy. No change is expected for tomorrow’s release.

Swissie (CHF): The Swissie is strong today as dual effect of risk-aversion and an unemployment report showed a rate of 2.9% unemployment are increasing demand.

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is stronger on the safe haven demand despite the weakening economic picture here in the US. If we don’t start to tackle the fiscal side of the equation, we may be in big trouble.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is the strongest today on risk aversion as carry trades are un-wound and tonight’s GDP release is expected to show negative growth. While this is no surprise after the natural disasters that hit them, it appears as though the calls for BOJ intervention may not be worrisome to the markets.

Poor Bubble Ben. The guy is getting no help from Washington DC and is the unfortunate whipping boy for all that ails us. Nevertheless he is doing all he can given the circumstances.

While I give him a lot of heat for the decisions he makes, he is merely reacting to the lack of leadership in government today. I think yesterday’s Q & A session was very telling, and he may not be getting a lot of sleep at night these days.

There are tougher times ahead for us, the longer we continue to extend and pretend is only going to make it worse.

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